uniformityville_horror
THINGS ARE SELDOM AS THEY SEEM.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Didn't Know I Was UnAmerican
Via the Left Coaster I found this amazing video. Every one of us can relate to this because we have all been called "UnAmerican" or "America Haters" for practicing our patriotic duty to protest what we think is wrong. This movie has powerfull images of people protesting juxtiposed with quotes from wingnut pundits and polititions calling us every name in the book.
Please watch this movie and send it to everyone you know. I guarentee that you will be nodding your head, and then shaking your head and finally feeling the pride in yourself that every one of us deserves.
Where IS Bush's Heart Anyway?

Kevin said:
How can anyone vote for him - he doesn't even know where his
heart is!!!!
Perhaps the looser has a stomach ache as he attempts to
hold his hand over his heart!
I say: Bush has his heart and his gut confused. Give him an
antiacid, somebody!
Latest Brownback initiative
Ashcroft will be our new Torquemada ? Cheney as Cardinal Richellieu ? Scalia will be the Inquisitor ?
I'm talking about the The "Constitution Restoration Act of 2004"
...the [Bushies] in Washington are pushing a law through Congress that would "acknowledge God as the sovereign source of law, liberty [and] government" in the United States. What's more, it would forbid all legal challenges to government officials who use the power of the state to enforce their own view of "God's sovereign authority." Any judge who dared even hear such a challenge could be removed from office.
The "Constitution Restoration Act of 2004" is no joke; it was introduced last month by some of the Bush Regime's most powerful Congressional sycophants. If enacted, it will effectively transform the American republic into a theocracy, where the arbitrary dictates of a "higher power" -- as interpreted by a judge, policeman, bureaucrat or president -- can override the rule of law.
All the fundamentalist rethoric and the mixing of church with science and law we saw so far may be just the beginning
Yikes!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/23/33620/186
As As Antonin Scalia explained a few months later, the Bible teaches and Christians believe "... that government ...derives its moral authority from God. Government is the `minister of God' with powers to `revenge,' to `execute wrath,'including even wrath by the sword..."
Aaack! Bush may appoint 3 more judges to help this fruitcake!
Law to introduce GOD above the US Supreme Court
This is the text of the "Constitution Restoration Act of 2004 (Introduced in Senate) mentioned above
S 2082 108th CONGRESS 2d Session
To limit the jurisdiction of Federal courts in certain cases and promote federalism.
[Federalism my arse, this promotes FUNDAMENTALISM]
IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES
February 12, 2004
Mr. SHELBY (for himself, Mr. MILLER, Mr. BROWNBACK, Mr. GRAHAM of South Carolina, Mr. INHOFE, and Mr. ALLARD) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary
A BILL
To limit the jurisdiction of Federal courts in certain cases and promote federalism.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This Act may be cited as the `Constitution Restoration Act of 2004'.
TITLE I--JURISDICTION , SEC. 101. APPELLATE JURISDICTION.
(a) IN GENERAL-
(1) AMENDMENT TO TITLE 28- Chapter 81 of title 28, United States Code, is amended by adding at the end the following:
`Sec. 1260. Matters not reviewable
`Notwithstanding any other provision of this chapter, the Supreme Court shall not have jurisdiction to review, by appeal, writ of certiorari, or otherwise, any matter to the extent that relief is sought against an element of Federal, State, or local government, or against an officer of Federal, State, or local government (whether or not acting in official personal capacity), by reason of that element's or officer's acknowledgement of God as the sovereign source of law, liberty, or government.'
Cry!

Damian Weger, 6, holds onto his father's flag as his
grandmother, Patricia Weger, consoles him during the funeral
of his father, Army Spc. Michael S. Weger at Huston National
Cemetery. Weger, 30, was killed Oct. 12 by an improvised
explosive device in Iraq.
(Photo: Barbara Davison / AP)
Monday, October 25, 2004
Kerry Campaign: Bush's Failure to Secure Iraqi Explosives has Made the World Less Safe
Kerry-Edwards Online Forum
Kerry Campaign: Bush's Failure to Secure Iraqi Explosives has Made the World Less Safe
Contact: Chad Clanton or Phil Singer, 202-464-2800, both of Kerry-Edwards 2004
WASHINGTON, Oct. 25 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Today, the New York Times revealed that the Bush Administration failed to secure nearly 380 tons of high-grade explosives in Iraq shortly after the United States took control over the country, despite being informed of their exact location. The failure to secure the explosives has led to three major concerns:
-- The weapons could end up or have already ended up in the hands of a terrorist group;
-- The explosives might be used against our troops on the ground; and
-- The explosives could be used to carry out a deadly attack against America or our allies.
NEW REVELATION: Failure To Secure Iraqi Explosives May Mean that Powerful Explosives are in Hands of Terrorists
Bush Administration Remained Silent About the Disappearance of Explosives: "The White House said President Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, was informed within the past month that the explosives were missing. It is unclear whether President Bush was informed. American officials have never publicly announced the disappearance, but beginning last week they answered questions about it posed by The New York Times and the CBS News program '60 Minutes.'" (NYT, 10/25/04)
Explosives May Help Terrorists Create Chaos: "In May, an internal I.A.E.A. memorandum warned that terrorists might be helping 'themselves to the greatest explosives bonanza in history.'" (NYT, 10/25/04)
Explosives Could Be Used For Nuclear Weapon: "The explosives could also be used to trigger a nuclear weapon, which was why international nuclear inspectors had kept a watch on the material." (NYT, 10/25/04)
NEW REVELATION: Bush Administration Was Warned About Possible Looting of Explosives But Failed To Act
Bush Administration Ignored Warnings of Leaving Explosives Unsupervised: "A European diplomat reported that Jacques Baute, head of the I.A.E.A.'s Iraq nuclear inspection team, warned officials at the United States mission in Vienna about the danger of the nuclear sites and materials once under I.A.E.A. supervision, including Al Qaqaa. But apparently, little was done. A senior Bush administration official said that during the initial race to Baghdad, American forces 'went through the bunkers, but saw no materials bearing the I.A.E.A. seal.' It is unclear whether they ever returned." (NYT, 10/25/04)
Kerry called on Bush to secure Iraq from looting: "Yesterday, Kerry took issue with the Bush administration's post-war policies in Iraq. 'I think they wasted a month,' Kerry said. 'They lost a serious amount of time because they didn't have a plan. They have allowed looting to take place that has done more damage to the infrastructure than any bomb.'" (Providence Journal-Bulletin, 5/23/03)
Bush / Administration Played Down Looting at the Time:
Bush Was Unconcerned About Looting: When asked in April 2003 about concerns of looting, Bush said: "The statue comes down on Wednesday, and the headlines start to read, 'Oh, there's disorder.' Well, no kidding...But just like the military campaign was second-guessed, I'm sure the plan is being -- but we will be successful." (Bush, 4/13/03)
Rumsfeld on Looting: "Stuff Happens": "'Freedom's untidy, and free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things,' Rumsfeld said. Looting, he added, was not uncommon for countries that experience significant social upheaval. 'Stuff happens,' Rumsfeld said." (CNN, 4/12/03)
White House Said Looting Was Part of Liberation Process: In April 2003, asked about looting in Iraq, White House Spokesman Ari Fleischer said: "Clearly, anything that involves looting is not desirable. It is worth noting that what you are seeing is a reaction to oppression...It's also a situation the world has seen before when oppressed people find freedom. For a short period of time, these actions have occurred in history. You saw it in Sierra Leone, you saw it in the Soviet Union with the collapse of the Soviet Union. And nobody likes to see it, but I think it has to be understood in the context of people who have been oppressed, who are reacting to the oppression" (WH Press Briefing, 4/11/04)
White House Said Stories About Looting Were Overblown: Asked about the widespread looting in Iraq, Fleischer said: "This is almost starting to remind me of the stories that said our forces were bogged down, as people watched 24, 36 hours' worth of people reacting to the oppression from which they suffered...but there's no question, in the President's judgment, that what's happening is people are finding liberation, are finding freedom." (WH Press Briefing, 4/11/04)
NEW REVELATION: Explosives May Be Used Against Our Troops
Immediate Concern Is Weapons Could Be Used Against Troops: "American weapons experts say their immediate concern is that the explosives could be used in major bombing attacks against American or Iraqi forces: the explosives, mainly HMX and RDX, could be used to produce bombs strong enough to shatter airplanes or tear apart buildings." (NYT, 10/25/04)
Same Type of Explosives Have Been Used By Terrorists Before: "The bomb that brought down Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 used less than a pound of the material of the type stolen from Al Qaqaa, and somewhat larger amounts were apparently used in the bombing of a housing complex in November 2003 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the blasts in a Moscow apartment complex in September 1999 that killed nearly 300 people." (NYT, 10/25/04)
Bush Said He Would Do Everything To Keep U.S. Soldiers Safe.
Bush: "Look, we just need strong support for our troops. And I have a solemn duty to say to you as squarely as I can, we will do the very best we possibly can to make your loved one safe. That's what we owe the family members, and that's what we owe the troops." (Bush, 5/4/04)
Kerry Accuses Bush of Incompetence (on loosing explosives)
Yahoo! News - Kerry Accuses Bush of Incompetence
ALAMOGORDO, N.M. - President Bush (news - web sites), presenting himself as the best candidate to keep America safe, was accused by John Kerry (news - web sites) on Monday of "unbelievable incompetence" in the disappearance of hundreds of tons of powerful explosives in Iraq (news - web sites).
"Every step of the way, this administration has miscalculated," Kerry said in Dover, N.H. He spoke shortly before traveling to Philadelphia for a rally with former President Clinton (news - web sites), who was making his first political appearance since heart surgery nearly seven weeks ago.
Kerry said the Bush administration had "miscalculated about how to go to war, miscalculated about the numbers of troops that we would need, miscalculated about sending young Americans to war without the armor they needed, without the Humvees they needed that were armored."
"And the incredible incompetence of this president and this administration has put our troops at risk and put this country at greater risk than we ought to be," Kerry said.
Running mate John Edwards (news - web sites), campaigning in Ohio, added, "After today, it's hard to imagine that even they'll continue believing things are going well."
The International Atomic Energy Agency said about 350 tons of highly explosive material had disappeared in Iraq, apparently stolen because of a lack of security at governmental installations.
The central argument of Bush's re-election campaign is that he can do a better job protecting America than Kerry, and polls show that voters trust Bush more on this issue. The Bush campaign dismissed Kerry's criticism of the missing explosives without responding to the allegations.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
ListenBeforeYouVote.com
Free Audio:
First Presidential Debate: September 30
Vice Presidential Debate: October 5
Second Presidential Debate: October 8
Third Presidential Debate: October 13
Day One: July 26
Day Two: July 27
Day Three: July 28
Day Four: July 29
Day One: August 30
Day Two: August 31
Day Three: September 1
Day Four: September 2
Ronald Reagan (1911-2004) Funeral Services, June 11, 2004 The Economist Swing State Reports
President Bush Address to the UN, September 21, 2004
Debate Between Ralph Nader and Howard Dean (7/9/04)
The 9-11 Commission Final Report News Conference
Richard A. Clarke (3/24/04)
Condoleezza Rice (4/8/04)
Colin L. Powell (3/23/04)
Donald Rumsfeld (3/23/04)
More 9-11 Commission Hearings
Bush had a stroke ?
From Daily Kos
PASADENA January 25 - KPCC 89.3 FM has learned that the underlying cause of President Bush's January 13 fainting spell is a heart arrhythmia called sinus bradycardia. The heart rhythm malfunction is not life threatening. Reporter Dave Robb, who broke the story, told KPCC's All Things Considered Host John Rabe that people with bradycardia have a slow heart rate, and are prone to fainting when they gag or choke. While the White House has acknowledged that the president has a slow heart rate, it had not volunteered the information that Mr. Bush has bradycardia.
White House physician Dr. Richard Tubb told Robb through spokesman Ken Lisaius that 'the president has sinus bradycardia consistent with athletic conditioning. The president's resting heart rate is 38 to 49 beats per minute.'
'That's the very definition of bradycardia,' said Dr. Harold Karpman, a heart specialist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles and a clinical professor at UCLA. Indeed, any heart rate slower than 60 beats per minutes is, by definition, bradycardia.
In general, a slow heart rate is a sign of a healthy heart, and many well-conditioned athletes have resting heart rates well below the normal 70-100 beats per minute. Mr. Bush, who works out for an hour every day and who regularly runs three miles in under 21 minutes, has the resting heart rate of a well-conditioned athlete, according to Dr. Tubb.
But one common problem associated with bradycardia is fainting, several heart specialists told Robb. Dr. Suneet Mittal, a heart specialist at New York Hospital, Cornell University Medical Center said fainting spells are 'the most serious concern' when someone has bradycardia. In addition, if the president's heart doesn't respond well to stress tests as he gets older, the specialists said he may need a pacemaker.
KPCC
"
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Newsweek online poll
Percentages may not total to 100% for each question due to non-responses | |||||
If the election were held today, who would you vote for? * 4916 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Kerry-Edwards | 74% | 46% | |||
Bush-Cheney | 25% | 46% | |||
Nader-Camejo | 0% | 2% | |||
Undecided/Other | 0% | 6% | |||
If you vote this year, will it be the first time you have voted in a general election for president? * 4883 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Yes | 13% | 15% | |||
No | 86% | 84% | |||
Don't know | 1% | 0% | |||
Have you made up your mind about who to vote for in the presidential election? * 4878 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Yes | 98% | 84% | |||
No | 1% | 13% | |||
Don't plan to vote | 0% | 3% | |||
Regardless of which presidential candidate you personally support, who do you think is more likely to win in November? * 4885 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Bush | 30% | 52% | |||
Kerry | 54% | 30% | |||
Don't know | 16% | 18% | |||
Compared to past presidential elections during your lifetime, do you see the 2004 election as the single most important election of your lifetime? * 4894 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Single most important | 66% | 32% | |||
More important than most others | 27% | 36% | |||
About as important as others | 6% | 29% | |||
Less important | 0% | 2% | |||
Don't know | 1% | 1% | |||
If John Kerry is elected president in November, do you think this country would be more vulnerable or less vulnerable to a terrorist attack than it would be if George W. Bush is re-elected? * 4896 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
More vulnerable | 24% | 38% | |||
Less vulnerable | 47% | 20% | |||
About as vulnerable | 28% | 35% | |||
Don't know | 1% | 7% | |||
Because of Iraq, do you think the military draft is likely to be reinstated if George W. Bush is re-elected in November? * 4897 web responses | |||||
RESPONSES | WEB | NEWSWEEK Magazine | |||
Yes, likely | 56% | 38% | |||
No, not likely | 35% | 51% | |||
Don't know | 9% | 11% | |||
Republican Stealing Signs falls flat on his face
A Lakewood Republican stealing campaign signs late one night got nabbed when he ran across a low- hanging driveway chain, fell face first onto a pilfered sign and the concrete and knocked himself unconscious.
Randal Wagner, 50, was loaded into an ambulance, treated at Lutheran Medical Center for abrasions and facial cuts and issued a summons.
Wagner, who unsuccessfully tried to steal a "Dave Thomas" congressional sign that evening, had signs for other Democratic candidates in his Toyota pickup, Wheat Ridge police reported.
"I did a very stupid thing," Wagner said Monday, admitting theft of the signs. "I got caught up in the political passions of this highly contested election."
Wagner said that he and his wife, Jan, who was driving their pickup that night, "want to apologize to the people" they have offended.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Bin Laden's exact location is known, says 9-11 panelist
From L.A. Daily News - News
CLAREMONT -- The Pentagon knows exactly where Osama bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan, it just can't get to him, John Lehman, a member of the 9-11 commission, said Thursday.
Lehman's remarks echoed those made Tuesday by Secretary of State Colin Powell, who asserted that the al-Qaida leader was alive and operating in the western part of Pakistan.
Bin Laden is living in South Waziristan in the Baluchistan Mountains of the Baluchistan region, Lehman told The San Bernardino Sun after delivering a keynote speech on terrorism at Pitzer College in Claremont.
In the exclusive interview, Lehman noted, 'There is an American presence in the area, but we can't just send in troops. If we did, we could have another Vietnam, and the United States cannot afford that right now.'
'We'll get (bin Laden) eventually, just not now,' he said. Asked how bin Laden was surviving, Lehman said he was getting money from outside countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and high-ranking ministers inside Saudi Arabia."
People Are Human-Bacteria Hybrid ?
Most of the cells in your body are not your own, nor are they even human. They are bacterial. From the invisible strands of fungi waiting to sprout between our toes, to the kilogram of bacterial matter in our guts, we are best viewed as walking 'superorganisms,' highly complex conglomerations of human, fungal, bacterial and viral cells.
That's the view of scientists at Imperial College London who published a paper in Nature Biotechnology Oct. 6 describing how these microbes interact with the body. Understanding the workings of the superorganism, they say, is crucial to the development of personalized medicine and health care in the future because individuals can have very different responses to drugs, depending on their microbial fauna.
The scientists concentrated on bacteria. More than 500 different species of bacteria exist in our bodies, making up more than 100 trillion cells. Because our bodies are made of only some several trillion human cells, we are somewhat outnumbered by the aliens. It follows that most of the genes in our bodies are from bacteria, too.
Luckily for us, the bacteria are on the whole commensal, sharing our food but doing no real harm. (The word derives from the Latin meaning to share a table for dinner.) In fact, they are often beneficial: Our commensal bacteria protect us from potentially dangerous infections. They do this through close interaction with our immune systems.
'We have known for some time that many diseases are influenced by a variety of factors, including both genetics and environment, but the concept of this superorganism could have a huge impact on our understanding of disease processes,' said Jeremy Nicholson, a professor of biological chemistry at Imperial College and leader of the study. He believes the approach could apply to research on insulin-resistance, heart disease, some cancers and perhaps even some neurological diseases.
http://www.wired.com/news/print/0,1294,65252,00.html
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Study:Bush supporters Reality Impaired
72% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had actual WMD (47%) or a major program for developing them (25%). Fifty-six percent assume that most experts believe Iraq had actual WMD and 57% also assume, incorrectly, that Duelfer concluded Iraq had at least a major WMD program. Kerry supporters hold opposite beliefs on all these points.
Similarly, 75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission. Here again, large majorities of Kerry supporters have exactly opposite perceptions.
These are some of the findings of a new study of the differing perceptions of Bush and Kerry supporters, conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes and Knowledge Networks, based on polls conducted in September and October.
Steven Kull, director of PIPA, comments, "One of the reasons that Bush supporters have these beliefs is that they perceive the Bush administration confirming them. Interestingly, this is one point on which Bush and Kerry supporters agree." Eighty-two percent of Bush supporters perceive the Bush administration as saying that Iraq had WMD (63%) or that Iraq had a major WMD program (19%). Likewise, 75% say that the Bush administration is saying Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. Equally large majorities of Kerry supporters hear the Bush administration expressing these views--73% say the Bush administration is saying Iraq had WMD (11% a major program) and 74% that Iraq was substantially supporting al Qaeda.
Steven Kull adds, "Another reason that Bush supporters may hold to these beliefs is that they have not accepted the idea that it does not matter whether Iraq had WMD or supported al Qaeda. Here too they are in agreement with Kerry supporters." Asked whether the US should have gone to war with Iraq if US intelligence had concluded that Iraq was not making WMD or providing support to al Qaeda, 58% of Bush supporters said the US should not have, and 61% assume that in this case the President would not have. Kull continues, "To support the president and to accept that he took the US to war based on mistaken assumptions likely creates substantial cognitive dissonance, and leads Bush supporters to suppress awareness of unsettling information about prewar Iraq."
http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Pres_Election_04/html/new_10_21_04.html
Tenet: War in Iraq WRONG
Tenet called the war on Iraq "wrong" in a speech Wednesday night to 2,000 members of The Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan at Lake Michigan College's Mendel Center. He did not elaborate.
Despite proclaiming to be "as forthcoming as I can," Tenet made light of a question about whether or not the United States made an error in committing intelligence to the search for nonexistent WMDs in Iraq rather than exploring terrorism elsewhere.
Tenet apologized for being rude but did not answer the question.
Counterpunch: A Bulletin on the Bush Bulge
"At Each Ear a Hearer"
Bulletin on the Bush Bulge
The scandal of George Bush's earpiece debate cheating device continues to grow.
I just got a look at the full Fox tape of President Bush's May '04 joint news conference with French President Jaques Chirac. In that tape, as in several other tapes I've seen, Bush can be heard seemingly getting prompting from another voice. About 12 seconds into the piece, the leading voice says, "And I look forward to working to" Bush comes in with "And I look workin'And I look forward to workin' to" The verbal slip-up makes it clear that this is no electronic echo or sound synchronization problem.

At another point, about one minute and sixteen seconds into the tape, the leading voice lets out a loud exhale of breath. Bush does not follow suit. There is no preceding voice when a reporter is heard asking a question. Also, at one minute and 28 seconds into this tape, Bush reaches up and manipulates something in his ear, at which point there is a static noise and the sound of a speaker acting up, until he removes his fingers from his ear.
There is no wire going up to his ear, indicating that the earpiece in his right ear is wireless.
CNN.com - Commander relieved of duty in Iraq - Oct 20, 2004
Because her soldiers refused a suicide mission...
Daily Kos :: We are Unbelievably Screwed, Argentina Style Collapse on Way
Daily Kos :: We are Unbelievably Screwed, Argentina Style Collapse on Way
We are Unbelievably Screwed, Argentina Style Collapse on Way
by msaroff
[Subscribe]
Thu Oct 21st, 2004 at 10:22:10 CDT
I've posted here occasionally, and regularly another private discussion board that the US is approaching a tipping point for an Argentina style currency collapse.
Currently, the dollar is at $1.2621:Euro. This is approaching the record low reached in the middle of February of $1.2848:Euro.
Now, we have foreign investors running away from US Treasury notes for the FIRST TIME EVER!!
Bond Sales Feed Worries (requires a login, use uid=wally@trashmail.net PW=wally from http://www.bugmenot.com)
Tuesday, October 19, 2004 By Jonathan Weisman and Ben White The Washington Post
NEW YORK . On Sept. 9, as it must frequently do, the U.S. government turned to Wall Street to raise a little cash, and Paul Calvetti bet that demand for $9 billion worth of long-term Treasury bonds would be "huge."
But at 1 p.m., as the auction opened and the numbers began streaming across his flat-panel screens, the head of Treasury trading at Barclays Capital Inc. slumped in his chair. Foreign investors, who had been voraciously buying Treasury bonds, failed to show up. Bond prices cascaded downward, interest rates rose, and in five minutes, Calvetti, 38, who makes money by bidding on bonds at one price and hoping market demand lets him quickly resell them at a profit, had lost $1.5 million.
"It's amazing," he gasped, after the Treasury Department announced that Wall Street traders, not foreigners, had been left to buy virtually the entire auction. "I don"t think I.ve ever seen this before."
The most recent auction of 10-year Treasury notes may have been a fluke, a momentary downturn in one aspect of the massive world market for U.S. government and private-sector bonds, stocks and other securities . a market so large and diverse that it has long been the world.s safe haven. But a rash of new data, including Treasury Department figures released Monday showing a net sell-off by foreigners of U.S. bonds in August, has stoked debate over whether overseas investors . private individuals, institutions and government central banks . are growingly dangerously bearish on the U.S. economy.
Diaries :: msaroff's diary ::
It is a portentous issue. Foreign governments and individuals hold about half of the $3.7 trillion in outstanding U.S. Treasury bonds, for example, and the government has been heavily dependent on continued overseas bond purchases to finance the roughly $1 billion a day it has to borrow to pay its bills. Foreign lending and investment are also needed to finance the country.s roughly $50 billion monthly trade deficit, while foreign capital has been a key prop to U.S. stock prices.
A turn in overseas attitudes toward the United States could ripple deeply through the economy, depressing the market, raising interest rates and pushing down the value of the dollar.
Also, it would cause interest rates to skyrocket, because the additional interest would be necessary to attract foreign investment.
It could drive down home prices by 10-20%, popping the equity bubble.
Foreign central banks and individuals rushed to finance U.S. government budget deficits over the past three years, buying $19.2 billion in Treasury bonds in 2001, $118 billion in 2002, and $279 billion in 2003. Lending from foreign governments in particular exploded last year . to $109 billion, up from $7.1 billion in 2002.
The fear among economists is that those foreign lenders may grow concerned that their portfolios are too swollen with dollar-denominated assets.
This is complicated by the emergence of the Euro as an alternate reserve currency.
The Chinese . whose Treasury holdings have tripled since 2000, to $172 billion . have already begun buying more Euro-denominated assets, said Rebecca Patterson, a senior currency strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
...
"The U.S. government will always be able to raise money, -- well, at least in the foreseeable future", he said,"The question is, what will you have to pay and who will you get it from?."
...
Desmond Lachman, an international economist at the American Enterprise Institute, writing for the conservative Web site Tech Central Station, cautioned that foreign central banks "now have considerable ability to disrupt U.S. financial markets by simply deciding to refrain from buying further U.S. government paper." (emphasis mine)
...
To John Williamson, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, that is cold comfort. The Chinese and Japanese central banks may maintain their huge reserves for defensive reasons, he said, but a smaller player, like Brazil or Singapore, could try to unload its dollar reserves, triggering a global sell-off. Like a mouse in a circus, even a bit player could cause the elephants to stampede.
"It's absolutely true that it wouldn't be in the interest of the world to do it, but any one country might think, I'll beat the crowd and diversify first," he warned. "I think that.s the more likely scenario."
Here's the scenario.
* Dollar starts sliding precipitously, so foreign investors in US debt require a greater return to offset their increased risk.
* Interest rates spike.
* Housing prices slide, drying up the home equity lines of credit that have fueled out economy.
* People start losing their homes, as the economy contracts, and they cannot find a buyer for their homes.
It's the Argentina crisis, though the US is in a better position because all of its debts are dollar denominated.